Decision Making

Decision Making

A color-coded map of Asia shows four migration phases from China, with arrows pointing toward Papua New Guinea and the Andaman Islands, both circled in yellow.
The plan — conquer China and push west to attack the Ottomans — was peak imperial hubris, as the Spanish themselves eventually realized.
An illustration of an eye outline formed by two black arrows, with a blue Earth at the center where the iris would be, on a textured beige and peach background.
An ode to the data visualization tools that help us see what is too vast, complex, or interconnected for the naked eye — from planetary systems to pandemic trends.
A man sits on a stool in front of a backdrop displaying a declining graph with bar charts and red trend lines, suggesting a downward trend in data.
1 min
“Let me walk you through the biggest traps that you should be aware of that are a danger to your financial wellbeing.”
3 min
Philosophy asks if free will is real. Neuroscience reveals why the answer is more complicated than we expected.
Unlikely Collaborators
A man in a dark coat holds up a signed document in front of a crowd; the document is circled in red.
From Hitler to Hamas, Western powers have repeatedly dismissed open threats as bluffs — with catastrophic results.
Two figures in military gear salute, rendered in white and red with visible brain scans over their heads, set against a black background—a striking nod to the neuroscience of war.
In “Warhead,” neuroscientist and national security adviser Nicholas Wright explains how the brain navigates warfare and why it is our ultimate weapon (and instrument for peace).
Black and white cutout of a smiling man's face with red heart shapes drawn over his eyes on a black background.
17 min
“No matter what their gods were, what they did for a living, what they wore, the songs they sang, everything varies except love, and everybody loves.”
A book cover titled "All That We See or Seem" by Ken Liu rests on a light background, beside text reading "an excerpt from" on a vibrant purple background.
A preview of the latest novel by the Hugo- and Nebula-winning author.
Aerial view of two groups of people waiting in line and walking on a paved surface, casting long shadows in the sunlight.
In this excerpt from "Lucky By Design," Judd Kessler explains how opportunity costs shape our choices and why time is the real price we pay.
A man in a dark polo shirt sits and smiles in front of a background with graph lines and stock charts, evoking the analytical style of Buffett and Munger.
A conversation with investor and author Alex Morris on what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger can teach us about focus, discipline, and building a life that lasts.
Four women stand in front of a vintage computer, each holding different components of its hardware, with the computer's panel visible in the background—an image reminiscent of historical innovation studied by Angus Fletcher.
The incredible story of how the US Army began the march toward generative AI in 1943 — and what it means for your business today.
A pink human profile with a square cutout in the head is beneath a green triangle containing scales of justice.
Members
Behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky won the Nobel Prize for mapping the human mind's irrational decision-making biases, and now, with insights from Julia Galef of the Center for Applied Rationality, we can learn to avoid these pitfalls.
A grid background with colorful arrows pointing in various directions, including straight, curved, and turning paths.
Members
Economist Larry Summers suggests that instead of judging decisions by their outcomes, we should evaluate them based on the rational process used to develop strategies, considering all relevant costs, benefits, and consequences.
A digitally illustrated portrait of a man with a mustache is centered on a geometric blue patterned background.
Members
Astronauts like Chris Hadfield and Scott Parazynski exemplify risk mitigation, demonstrating that their contingency planning skills are applicable to various challenges on Earth, from budgeting to managing Fortune 500 companies.
Geometric pattern with red and orange triangles, squares, and circles arranged in a grid with textured backgrounds.
Members
This class, featuring experts like Timothy, Herman, and Zollman, explores organizational culture and decision-making by emphasizing psychological qualities, diverse perspectives, and the importance of collaboration, trust, and organized skepticism to enhance team effectiveness and combat cognitive biases.
A geometric composition with green, pink, and blue overlapping shapes, each containing intricate, vintage anatomical line drawings on a textured background.
Members
This class explores human decision-making, emphasizing humility and data-driven analysis while addressing cognitive biases like availability bias and confirmation bias, ultimately equipping participants with strategies to improve judgment and navigate complex choices through a blend of psychological insights and practical applications.
Abstract illustration of an eye centered over four quadrants in blue, purple, green, and beige, with the eye composed of overlapping colored segments.
Members
This course on strategic empathy, led by instructors like Amaryllis Fox and Liv Boeree, teaches participants to understand opposing viewpoints through "Red Teaming," while addressing cognitive biases and emphasizing the importance of historical context, cultural awareness, and ethical decision-making in complex global issues.
A blue and green dot drawing of a woman looking through a microscope.
Members
This class explores human cognition and decision-making through insights from experts like Michio Kaku on magical thinking, Madhavan on systems-level thinking, Mlodinow on elastic thinking, Konnikova on deductive reasoning, and Summers on structured decision-making, promoting a scientific mindset for effective problem-solving.
A man in a suit walks on grass beside a long-haired dog, with faded images of a magic wand, a hat, and white doves in the blue-toned background.
A childhood spent under the spell of sleight-of-hand taught me skepticism, curiosity, and the habit of looking beneath appearances.
Black-and-white portrait of a man in a suit centered between a grid, network lines, and a swirling blue pattern evoking a hurricane, symbolizing the dynamic power of predictive intelligence.
Brian Gumbel — President and Chief Operating Officer (COO) at Dataminr — explores the cutting edge of real-time information analysis.
Book cover of "Manage Yourself to Lead Others" by Margaret C. Andrews, with the phrase "an excerpt from" on a purple background—highlighting the importance of know thyself in effective leadership.
Aristotle taught that “knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom” — all leaders and teams should take note.
A person walks barefoot on a slackline stretched high above the ocean, with one arm raised for balance and cliffs visible at each end.
5 min
“If you ask a computer, it will say, most of the time you want to either be raising or folding, right? You want to take an aggressive action or quit. I think this is a great metaphor for lots of things in real life, too.”
A man sits on a chair in a photo studio, flanked by black-and-white illustrations of an early human ancestor on the left and a modern man running on the right.
1 min
“Nothing about human behavior makes sense except in the light of culture and in anthropology, and we need to understand the cultural component to our behaviors as well.”
A storytelling collage featuring a man inspecting barrels, a person holding a skull mask, another man observing the mask, and the text "THE NIGHTCRAWLER" in bold black and orange.
Welcome to The Nightcrawler — a weekly newsletter from Eric Markowitz covering tech, innovation, and long-term thinking.
A digital illustration of a hermit crab with a shell resembling a human brain, shown in two square sections over the shell.
A conversation about intelligence and consciousness with philosopher Peter Godfrey-Smith.
Abstract illustration of translucent human figures standing in line, with a mix of a natural outdoor scene and geometric digital elements in the background.
The overlooked reason why "AI consciousness" isn't coming anytime soon.
John Candeto, in a white shirt, smiles while sitting outdoors near stone steps and green potted plants.
Fund manager and writer John Candeto is on a mission to decode the hidden patterns that drive extraordinary outcomes.
Book excerpt promotional graphic showing the cover of "Distancing: How Great Leaders Reframe to Make Better Decisions" by L. David Marquet and Michael A. Gillespie, highlighting an Intel genius approach in leadership—an excerpt from.
To navigate a heavyweight corporate quandary, take a leaf out of Intel’s brilliant playbook — walk out, and return as your own successor.
A person in a suit holds up a NOAA map showing the forecast track and intensity of Hurricane Dorian, reminding us that, unlike Einstein, we can't change the facts—only prepare for them—in an office setting.
Einstein is credited with saying, "If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." What he actually said has a very different meaning.