Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis

Two hands, one light and one dark, each holding a contrastingly colored molecular structure against a gradient background.
The fear of unleashing forces beyond control has haunted science for centuries.
Black-and-white portrait of Andrew Mayne centered on a collage background featuring sharks on the left and a hand holding a magician’s hat and wand on the right.
The outrageously accomplished magician-inventor-author chats to Big Think about fear, multitasking, and successful work-life reinvention.
jwst
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which could devastate a city's worth of humans, has gone from 1.2% to 2.3% to 2.6% to 3.1% chances of impact. Here's why.
Two children displaying defiance as they make faces at each other on the left; a close-up of fingers holding dominoes on the right.
Sunita Sah hopes that by redefining defiance, we can build societies that allow people to live more authentic lives.
A group of people, including children, wade through a shallow river in the forested area of the Darién Gap. One person carries a suitcase and other luggage on their back.
Each year, over half a million migrants cross the deadly jungle separating Colombia from Panama in search of a better life in the United States.
Spectators observing a dramatic eruption from active volcanoes at twilight.
Volcanologists warn that magma-filled vents evolve over time, leading to an underestimation of the number that might erupt — especially those capable of the biggest explosions
A football player running.
Football is a risky sport, but bicycling to work is far more dangerous.
A railroad bridge collapse
Catastrophes are difficult to predict because they are so rare. But AI using active learning can make predictions from very small data sets.
With a record-setting $1.9 billion jackpot, you'd think it's a no-brainer to buy a Powerball ticket. But the math truly shows otherwise.
Wyoming's roads are nine times deadlier than Ireland's. California's road safety is on par with Romania's.
The recently discovered Oort cloud comet, Bernardinelli–Bernstein, has the largest known nucleus: 119 km. Here's what it could do to Earth.
poisson distribution
The Poisson distribution has everyday applications in science, finance, and insurance. To compare the results of some biomedical studies, more people ought to be familiar with it.
The laws of physics aren’t changing. The Earth is. When it comes to any physical science, we know that the fundamental rules governing how the Universe works remain constant with time. […]
If we succeed in contacting them, will that seal humanity’s doom? One of the most wondrous questions of all concerns our place in the Universe. After 13.8 billion years of […]
Even the ones hunting for aliens aren’t excited. Here’s the reason why. In this world, there are very few issues more polarizing than the notion of aliens. For as long as […]
Only 17 years after its discovery have we learned we’re safe from asteroid Apophis. Ever since its 2004 discovery, asteroid 99942 Apophis has threatened planet Earth. Asteroid Apophis has been measured […]
That’s not how probability works. Or asteroids, for that matter. “Bringing an asteroid back to Earth? What’s that have to do with space exploration? If we were moving outward from there, […]